The trend line for the real return is r = 1.3056 / CAPE^0.076.
11/21/2010
CAPE Ratio vs Real Return for S&P500
From Robert Shiller's S&P500 data at http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/, the following chart shows the relationship between the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio and the annualized real return for the next 10 years (total return).
The trend line for the real return is r = 1.3056 / CAPE^0.076.
The trend line for the real return is r = 1.3056 / CAPE^0.076.
7/21/2010
Apple 3rd Quarter Results (revised)
Sold Units
Mac: 3.47 millions (MacBook $999, MacBook Pro $1199, MacBook Air $1499, iMac $1199, Mac Pro $2499)
iPhone: 8.4 millions (3G $99, 4.16G $199, 4.32G $299)
iPod: 9.41 millions (shuffle $59, nano $149 ~ $ 179, classic $249, touch $199)
iPad: 3.27 millions ($499 ~ $829)
Revenue: 15.7 billions
Net Profit: 3.25 billions
EPS: $3.51
Generated $4 billion of cash
4th Q Est.
then the Estimated iPad Net Sales per Unit would be about $613 (or less)
============ from 3nd Quarter 10-Q ==========
*data from Press Release 2nd Quarter (Mar 27,2010) 10-Q 3rd Quarter (Jun 26,2010)10-Q
Mac: 3.47 millions (MacBook $999, MacBook Pro $1199, MacBook Air $1499, iMac $1199, Mac Pro $2499)
iPhone: 8.4 millions (3G $99, 4.16G $199, 4.32G $299)
iPod: 9.41 millions (shuffle $59, nano $149 ~ $ 179, classic $249, touch $199)
iPad: 3.27 millions ($499 ~ $829)
Revenue: 15.7 billions
Net Profit: 3.25 billions
EPS: $3.51
Generated $4 billion of cash
4th Q Est.
Revenue: 18 billions
EPS: $3.44
============ from 2nd Quarter 10-Q ==========
Net Sales per Unit
Mac: $1,278
iPhone: $622 (iPhone and related products and services per Unit)
iPod: $171
Peripherals and Hardware, and Software and others $1.1 billion
Other Music related products and services $1.327 billion
then the Estimated iPad Net Sales per Unit would be about $613 (or less)
so the Total Revenue(Sales) is
3.47 * 1278 + 8.4 * 622 + 9.41 * 171 + 1100 + 1327 + 3.27 * 613 = 15,700 millions
============ from 3nd Quarter 10-Q ==========
Net Sales per Unit
Mac: $1,267 (-11)
iPhone: $635 (+13) (iPhone and related products and services per Unit)
iPod: $164 (-7)
iPad: $662 (new) (iPad and related products and services per Unit)
Peripherals and Hardware, and Software and others $1.042 billion(-0.058)
Other Music related products and services $1.214 billion(-0.113)
3.47 * 1267 + 8.4 * 635 + 9.41 * 164 + 3.27 * 662 + 1042 + 1241 = 15,721 millions
*data from Press Release 2nd Quarter (Mar 27,2010) 10-Q 3rd Quarter (Jun 26,2010)10-Q
6/04/2010
Jobless Claims and Hotjobs Jobs Listing
Here is a comparison between Jobless Claims and Hotjobs Jobs Listing data.
6/03/2010
S&P 500 Historical and Simulated Results
S&P500 monthly data from Jan 1950 to Jun 2010 (SPX from finance.yahoo.com). The first graph shows the 20 years annualized performance (before v.s. after)
From the two graphs, we can see the simulated random walk result is more scattered with a lower R value.
The second graph shows the simulated result (mean=5.7347%, sigma=14.601%).
From the two graphs, we can see the simulated random walk result is more scattered with a lower R value.
5/29/2010
Steven Eisman's New Big Short?
Bloomberg BW just posted an article about the hedge fund manager who used to bet against subprime market said he has found a new target to short.
Eisman gave a rough analysis on the impact to the earnings of the for-profit educations if the new regulations come out against them in the near future. That might be effective after July 2011.
Eisman gave a rough analysis on the impact to the earnings of the for-profit educations if the new regulations come out against them in the near future. That might be effective after July 2011.
5/28/2010
Google and its Money
Google is hiring Portfolio Manager and Analysts to manage its pile of cash.
"Google Treasury is building a world-class global portfolio management organization to efficiently manage and optimize the investment returns on its growing cash balances." - Google Jobs
An article at BW gives an update on Google's portfolio, the following graph is from businessweek.com.
"Google Treasury is building a world-class global portfolio management organization to efficiently manage and optimize the investment returns on its growing cash balances." - Google Jobs
An article at BW gives an update on Google's portfolio, the following graph is from businessweek.com.
5/18/2010
Web and Econometrics
According a report from Forbes, Using Google to Predict the Unemployment Rate, the researchers, Francesco D’Amuri from the University of Essex and the Bank of Italy and Juri Marcucci from the Bank of Italy, use the Google keywords search statistics to forecast the unemployment rate. People who are interested can use Google Insights for Search to look for the related data.
Another way to get a sense of the job market is using hotjobs.com to gather the hiring information for different states. Some of the populous states are CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, MA, OH, MI, WA. Monster.com also publishes Monster Employment Index monthly.
Google Insights for Search is a good tool for seeing the trends of popular products, but you need to use the right keywords to get the right information.
Another way to get a sense of the job market is using hotjobs.com to gather the hiring information for different states. Some of the populous states are CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, MA, OH, MI, WA. Monster.com also publishes Monster Employment Index monthly.
Google Insights for Search is a good tool for seeing the trends of popular products, but you need to use the right keywords to get the right information.
5/13/2010
Universa Investment LP's Trade
According to WSJ
"Shortly after 2:15 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, hedge fund Universa Investments LP placed a big bet in the Chicago options trading pits...
On any other day, this $7.5 million trade for 50,000 options contracts...
The trade by Universa, a hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," led traders on the other side of the transaction—including Barclays Capital, the brokerage arm of British bank Barclays PLC—to do their own selling to offset some of the risk, according to traders in Chicago.
Through the trading desks at Barclays, Universa bought 50,000 options contracts... The contracts would pay off about $4 billion should the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fall to 800 in June. It was at 1145 points at the time of the trade.
"
According to other news source, Universa Investment LP has about 6 billions under management in Jun 2009. The bet is about 0.125% of the fund for a 7 week term.
4 billions profit on 50,000 contracts means 80,000 profit per contract, and 800 per unit. How to make 800 profit with a drop of only 345 points on SPX?
The original put premium is about 1.25. If SPX drops to 800 on the same day and the VIX jumps up to 80, the SPX100619P800 premium will be about 93. The profit is only 92 and the total will be about 460 millions, a 7.67% return.
"Shortly after 2:15 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, hedge fund Universa Investments LP placed a big bet in the Chicago options trading pits...
On any other day, this $7.5 million trade for 50,000 options contracts...
The trade by Universa, a hedge fund advised by Nassim Taleb, author of "Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," led traders on the other side of the transaction—including Barclays Capital, the brokerage arm of British bank Barclays PLC—to do their own selling to offset some of the risk, according to traders in Chicago.
Through the trading desks at Barclays, Universa bought 50,000 options contracts... The contracts would pay off about $4 billion should the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fall to 800 in June. It was at 1145 points at the time of the trade.
"
According to other news source, Universa Investment LP has about 6 billions under management in Jun 2009. The bet is about 0.125% of the fund for a 7 week term.
4 billions profit on 50,000 contracts means 80,000 profit per contract, and 800 per unit. How to make 800 profit with a drop of only 345 points on SPX?
The original put premium is about 1.25. If SPX drops to 800 on the same day and the VIX jumps up to 80, the SPX100619P800 premium will be about 93. The profit is only 92 and the total will be about 460 millions, a 7.67% return.
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